We start with the 10 millibar chart, showing observed temperatures from 2012 and 2013. If we look to the latest observed temperatures, we see a very sharp spike of temperatures in this layer of the stratosphere, indicating the sudden stratospheric warming event (SSW) has begun, thanks to an incredible swath of very above normal temperatures, as shown in the below animation, also from the 10mb layer:
Let's take a look now at past and present images of the 30 millibar layer:
Comparing the top image, from December 29th, and the bottom image (from January 4) shows us that significant warming has indeed taken place across much of that layer of the stratosphere. The colder temperature colors have also been drastically reduced in response to this significant warming which, if it holds its ground or strengthens, would inflict increasingly heavier damage on the polar vortex. It would only take one good perfectly-placed SSW to knock the 30mb polar vortex out, possibly to collapse.
The more likely route to take would probably be a piece of the polar vortex splitting into multiple daughter vortices, with one going into Canada and the other staying in Europe. The warm temperature anomalies would then push poleward and instigate high pressure formation in between the two vortices to keep the vortices apart. The split is the first crucial step to a complete collapse of a polar vortex collapse. Will there be another SSW? I'll explain the potential later on.
Let's take a look now at past and present images of the 30 millibar layer:
Comparing the top image, from December 29th, and the bottom image (from January 4) shows us that significant warming has indeed taken place across much of that layer of the stratosphere. The colder temperature colors have also been drastically reduced in response to this significant warming which, if it holds its ground or strengthens, would inflict increasingly heavier damage on the polar vortex. It would only take one good perfectly-placed SSW to knock the 30mb polar vortex out, possibly to collapse.
The more likely route to take would probably be a piece of the polar vortex splitting into multiple daughter vortices, with one going into Canada and the other staying in Europe. The warm temperature anomalies would then push poleward and instigate high pressure formation in between the two vortices to keep the vortices apart. The split is the first crucial step to a complete collapse of a polar vortex collapse. Will there be another SSW? I'll explain the potential later on.
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