Possible Tropical Cyclones

Its been awhile since there's been any posts. This post is about a couple systems being watched in the Atlantic and Caribbean. The first wave we are watching has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. This wave is in the western Caribbean. At this point the path of the system is unknown but there is two paths being predicted. It could take the northern path into the Gulf of Mexico which would be it would strengthen as it moves or it could take the most southern track towards the Yucatan Peninsula and it would remain weak. The second wave is moving off the African coast and it has a 20% chance of devaeloping into a tropical cyclone before it hits cooler water and dryer air. STAY TUNED FOR MORE INFORMATION..... AARON EVANS

January 2013 Stratospheric Warming Event

We start with the 10 millibar chart, showing observed temperatures from 2012 and 2013. If we look to the latest observed temperatures, we see a very sharp spike of temperatures in this layer of the stratosphere, indicating the sudden stratospheric warming event (SSW) has begun, thanks to an incredible swath of very above normal temperatures, as shown in the below animation, also from the 10mb layer: Let's take a look now at past and present images of the 30 millibar layer: Comparing the top image, from December 29th, and the bottom image (from January 4) shows us that significant warming has indeed taken place across much of that layer of the stratosphere. The colder temperature colors have also been drastically reduced in response to this significant warming which, if it holds its ground or strengthens, would inflict increasingly heavier damage on the polar vortex. It would only take one good perfectly-placed SSW to knock the 30mb polar vortex out, possibly to collapse. The more likely route to take would probably be a piece of the polar vortex splitting into multiple daughter vortices, with one going into Canada and the other staying in Europe. The warm temperature anomalies would then push poleward and instigate high pressure formation in between the two vortices to keep the vortices apart. The split is the first crucial step to a complete collapse of a polar vortex collapse. Will there be another SSW? I'll explain the potential later on.

Post Christmas Storm Potential

***ATTENTION*** There is high confidence that a major winter storm will hit the Mid-Atlantic the 26th-28th. It will likely be warm ahead of the storm so it will likely, begin as rain. Once the colder air moves in there is a possibility that N Virginia and Central Maryland may get a big Ice Storm. Behind the storm, Arctic air, may move in and will cause the storm to drop heavy significant snow across all of West Virginia, E Kentucky, SE Ohio and S Pennsylvania. Several inches could accumulate. STAY TUNED FOR MORE ON THIS POTENTIAL DECEMBER 2012 SNOW/ICE STORM NEXT WEEK.

Winter Storm December 10-12

At the moment everything is still a bit fuzzy on this potential winter storm. The models keep bouncing back and forth. With every run there's something different about the storm. Either it is stronger or it is weaker or a model has backed off it. Here is 120 hour look for December 11, 2012 from the GFS Model. I Will have an update soon

Winter Weather Awareness Week

Tomorrow marks the start of Winter Weather Awareness Week. Monday- Introduction Tuesday- Watches/Warnings Wednesday- Types of winter weather Thursday- Safety tips Friday- Conclusion REMEMBER I'LL HAVE SAFETY TIPS EVERYDAY JUST NOT THURSDAY BUT MOST OF THEM WILL THURSDAY.

Welcome

This is our new weather blog. Stay tuned for an update on this storm.