Tropical Storm Humberto To Become A Hurricane

On Sunday Tropical Depression Nine formed in the Eastern Atlantic and on Monday TD 9 strengthened into Tropical Storm Humberto. Humberto has been strengthening rapidly the past couple of days and is expected to become a hurricane late this evomorrowening or early tomorrow. If Humberto becomes a Hurricane before 8 AM tomorrow the record for latest hurricane will be unbroken and if it does not the record will be broken. *Tropical Storm HUMBERTO* ...HUMBERTO ALMOST A HURRICANE... 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 10 Location: "15.0°N 28.1°W" Moving: "NW at 8 mph" Min pressure: "993 mb" Max sustained: "70 mph" HUMBERTO WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE STORM WILL MAKE A WESTWARD TURN BACK TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ALL RESIDENTS ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Possible Tropical Cyclones

Its been awhile since there's been any posts. This post is about a couple systems being watched in the Atlantic and Caribbean. The first wave we are watching has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. This wave is in the western Caribbean. At this point the path of the system is unknown but there is two paths being predicted. It could take the northern path into the Gulf of Mexico which would be it would strengthen as it moves or it could take the most southern track towards the Yucatan Peninsula and it would remain weak. The second wave is moving off the African coast and it has a 20% chance of devaeloping into a tropical cyclone before it hits cooler water and dryer air. STAY TUNED FOR MORE INFORMATION..... AARON EVANS

January 2013 Stratospheric Warming Event

We start with the 10 millibar chart, showing observed temperatures from 2012 and 2013. If we look to the latest observed temperatures, we see a very sharp spike of temperatures in this layer of the stratosphere, indicating the sudden stratospheric warming event (SSW) has begun, thanks to an incredible swath of very above normal temperatures, as shown in the below animation, also from the 10mb layer: Let's take a look now at past and present images of the 30 millibar layer: Comparing the top image, from December 29th, and the bottom image (from January 4) shows us that significant warming has indeed taken place across much of that layer of the stratosphere. The colder temperature colors have also been drastically reduced in response to this significant warming which, if it holds its ground or strengthens, would inflict increasingly heavier damage on the polar vortex. It would only take one good perfectly-placed SSW to knock the 30mb polar vortex out, possibly to collapse. The more likely route to take would probably be a piece of the polar vortex splitting into multiple daughter vortices, with one going into Canada and the other staying in Europe. The warm temperature anomalies would then push poleward and instigate high pressure formation in between the two vortices to keep the vortices apart. The split is the first crucial step to a complete collapse of a polar vortex collapse. Will there be another SSW? I'll explain the potential later on.