Tropics Possibly Heating Up Before Season Starts

Models are continuing to show a Low Pressure System developing near the Bahamas next week. Many are probably asking "Isn't it too early for Tropical Systems to develop?" It may seem like it is Early but it isn't Tropical Systems can develop anytime of the year if Conditions are favorable for Development The last time there was any Pre-Season Storms was back in 2012 when both Alberto and Beryl formed in May. Alberto formed on May 19 and lasted until the 22. Alberto stayed away from land and moved out to sea! Beryl formed on May 26 and lasted until May 30. Beryl moved over Northeastern Florida before moving up the East coast and back over the open waters and out to sea. There have also been some late Season Storms as well. The last ones were in 2005 and Early 2006 Hurricane Epsilon developed on November 29 2005 and lasted until December 8 2005! Epsilon was the final of fifteen hurricanes within the record-breaking 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. Originating from a cold front beneath an upper-level low, Epsilon formed on November 29 about 915 mi (1470 km) east of Bermuda. Initially, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast the storm to transition into an extratropical cyclone within five days, due to conditions unfavorable for significant intensification. Epsilon continually defied forecasts, at first due to an unexpected loop to the southwest, and later due to retaining its strength despite cold waters and strong wind shear. Tropical Storm Zeta developed December 30 2005 and lasted until January 6 2006 Tropical Storm Zeta was a late-developing tropical storm over the central Atlantic that formed after the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season had officially ended (on November 30) and continued into January 2006. Becoming a tropical depression at approximately midnight on December 30 (UTC),it became the record-breaking thirtieth tropical cyclone of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season and after intensifying into Tropical Storm Zeta six hours later, it become the season's twenty-seventh named storm. Zeta was one of only two Atlantic tropical cyclones to span two calendar years (the other being Hurricane Alice in 1954–55). Zeta originated from an area of low pressure on December 29, which previously developed within an upper-level trough. After becoming a tropical storm, the National Hurricane Center continually predicted it would weaken rapidly. Like the previous tropical cyclone, Hurricane Epsilon, Zeta defied these predictions. The storm reached its peak strength on January 2, 2006 before finally dissipating on January 6. As Zeta never approached land there was no impact from the storm other than minor shipping problems. Several ships encountered the storm, and several crews in the 2005 Atlantic Rowing Race were affected by rough seas and high winds. Therefore I will continue to monitor the model runs and let everyone know what is going on with the Low Pressure once it develops!

Severe Weather Threat Sunday Evening and Monday for West Virginia

As the next Weather system moves into the area Sunday afternoon there could be the chance for Severe Weather into Monday. The threat right now would appear to be Damaging Winds and Large Hail with some Heavy Rain and possibly a tornado or two! It is something that I will continue to watch. All this will be due to a cold front that will move through on Monday. Pretty much like the last Severe Weather Threat we had last week but this won't be a three day Severe Weather Threat for us! STAY UP TO DATE ON THIS!

Rockies Late Season Winter Storm

While we here in West Virginia are dealing with the nice weather and that rain that will be moving in....the Northern and Central Rockies will be dealing with a Late Season Winter Storm that could drop as much as 8 or more inches of Snow!

NWS Western and Central Wyoming (Winter Storm Warnings- Pink) (Winter Weather Advisories- Purple)

NWS Denver/Boulder,Colorado (Winter Storm Warnings- Pink) (Winter Storm Watches- SteelBlue)

Welcome Back

Hello everyone! We are back. A lot of things have changed since we last posted here on our blog. New Name for the website and Facebook Page and we also have changed our viewing area back to only West Virginia We have added several things such as Severe Weather Statements, Severe Thunderstorm Statements, Tornado Statements, Flood Statements, Winter Weather Statements. The Winter Weather Statement was added last year in January. The Severe Weather Statements were just added last month. We also are trying to come up with new ideas for the page everyday. So come on over to Central Appalachian Weather https://www.facebook.com/a.e.nws and check out our page! HAVE A GREAT EVENING Aaron Evans ADMINISTRATOR

Tropical Storm Humberto To Become A Hurricane

On Sunday Tropical Depression Nine formed in the Eastern Atlantic and on Monday TD 9 strengthened into Tropical Storm Humberto. Humberto has been strengthening rapidly the past couple of days and is expected to become a hurricane late this evomorrowening or early tomorrow. If Humberto becomes a Hurricane before 8 AM tomorrow the record for latest hurricane will be unbroken and if it does not the record will be broken. *Tropical Storm HUMBERTO* ...HUMBERTO ALMOST A HURRICANE... 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 10 Location: "15.0°N 28.1°W" Moving: "NW at 8 mph" Min pressure: "993 mb" Max sustained: "70 mph" HUMBERTO WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE STORM WILL MAKE A WESTWARD TURN BACK TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ALL RESIDENTS ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Possible Tropical Cyclones

Its been awhile since there's been any posts. This post is about a couple systems being watched in the Atlantic and Caribbean. The first wave we are watching has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. This wave is in the western Caribbean. At this point the path of the system is unknown but there is two paths being predicted. It could take the northern path into the Gulf of Mexico which would be it would strengthen as it moves or it could take the most southern track towards the Yucatan Peninsula and it would remain weak. The second wave is moving off the African coast and it has a 20% chance of devaeloping into a tropical cyclone before it hits cooler water and dryer air. STAY TUNED FOR MORE INFORMATION..... AARON EVANS

January 2013 Stratospheric Warming Event

We start with the 10 millibar chart, showing observed temperatures from 2012 and 2013. If we look to the latest observed temperatures, we see a very sharp spike of temperatures in this layer of the stratosphere, indicating the sudden stratospheric warming event (SSW) has begun, thanks to an incredible swath of very above normal temperatures, as shown in the below animation, also from the 10mb layer: Let's take a look now at past and present images of the 30 millibar layer: Comparing the top image, from December 29th, and the bottom image (from January 4) shows us that significant warming has indeed taken place across much of that layer of the stratosphere. The colder temperature colors have also been drastically reduced in response to this significant warming which, if it holds its ground or strengthens, would inflict increasingly heavier damage on the polar vortex. It would only take one good perfectly-placed SSW to knock the 30mb polar vortex out, possibly to collapse. The more likely route to take would probably be a piece of the polar vortex splitting into multiple daughter vortices, with one going into Canada and the other staying in Europe. The warm temperature anomalies would then push poleward and instigate high pressure formation in between the two vortices to keep the vortices apart. The split is the first crucial step to a complete collapse of a polar vortex collapse. Will there be another SSW? I'll explain the potential later on.